Football in Italy has had it's ups and downs lately, and coming into this season, it is no different. More match-fixing scandals have surfaced, and they are the "Mario Balotelli" of football leagues: Beautiful one day, in the news the next. The country is riding a high after a shock Euro final, and will surely be impressed by the matches this upcoming season, which starts on August 25th.
My predictions are not based on any guesses as to who will be docked points this upcoming season. Atalanta and Siena are surely to be headed towards relegation after accused of being part of 29 Serie B matches, two Coppa Italia matches and two Coppa Lega Pro ties that were supposedly fixed during the season that they were promoted (2010-11.) I believe other teams will be docked points here and there throughout the season, as Italian football has always been somewhat scandalous (Torino has already been docked 1 point.)
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
1st
Juventus - After an undefeated season last year in Serie A, the black and white are looking to improve on their one trophy with a Champions League title. With so much success in Italy, it seems to be a headscratcher why it hasn't translated into European success. While manager Antonio Conte has been banned this season for allegedly not reporting fixed matches, I believe the players are too good and experienced to let it distract them. Gianluigi Buffon, Giorgio Chiellini, Leonardo Bonucci, Andrea Barzagli, Andrea Pirlo, Claudio Marchisio, and Sebastian Giovinco all play on the national team, and should lead them to the top once again. They may struggle in the first month or two, but should win the league by a comfortable margin. For Pirlo, this season could be his last serious attempt at a Euro title. He'll want it bad.
CL Quarters looks like a lock, and a semi seems realistic. The sky is the limit for this team.
2011: Champions (Qualified for Champions League), 23-15-0, 84 points
Key Arrivals: Giovinco (Parma), Paul Pogba (Manchester United), Lucio (Inter Milan), Mauricio Isla (Udinese), Kwadwo Asamoah (Udinese), Reto Ziegler (Fenerbahce)
Key Departures: Felipe Melo (Galatasaray), Alessandro Del Piero, Martin Caceres (Sevilla), Milos Krasic (Fenerbahce)
2nd
Milan - Despite losing tons of experience and star power, they are rebuilding, and because they were so far away from 3rd last year, I believe they will drop points and retain second place in Serie A. Thiago Silva is gone, so the central defense will have to sort itself out. They'll have to sort out who will be in the middle to hold it down and keep them up in the Champions League. Mario Yepes and Daniele Bonera will likely start in the start, however, Philippe Mexes could solidify his place later in the season if one of them slips.
They have a lot of money after dealing in the transfer window. Rumors of a Kaka return are popular, and combined with Pato the addition of Riccardo Montolivo could prove deadly. KP Boateng should step up and claim this team to be his.
The youth system looks great, especially since they've looked like the oldest team in Europe. Stephan Al-Shaaraway looks phenomenal.
Round of 16 appearance this year in CL.
2011: 2nd (Champions League), 24-8-6, 80 points
Key Additions: Montolivo (Fiorentina), Sulley Muntari (Inter), Bakaye Traore (Nancy), Christian Zapata
Key Departures: Zlatan Ibrahimovic (PSG), Silva (PSG), Alessandro Nesta (Montreal Impact), Mark van Bommel (PSV), Gennaro Gattuso (FC Sion), Clarence Seedorf (Botafogo), Massimo Oddo (retired), Filippo Inzaghi (retired), Alberto Aquilani (Liverpool)
3rd
Inter - After a disappointing 6th place finish last year in the Scudetto, Inter are primed to make a charge this year and have already done some damage in the transfer market. They got five immediate starters in Fredy Guarin (secured from loan), Gaby Mudingayi, Matias Silvestre, Rodrigo Palacio, and goalkeeper Samir Handanovic, improving themselves in every position. Despite losing Lucio, Pandev and Muntari, I believe this squad will build itself around Sneijder and push itself back into the Champions League.
They will threaten for Europa Cup glory, being one of the strongest teams in the tournament. I see a final in their future.
They will threaten for Europa Cup glory, being one of the strongest teams in the tournament. I see a final in their future.
2011: 6th, (Europa, 3rd qualifying round), 17-7-14, 58 points
Key Additions: Guarin, Mudingayi, Silvestre, Palacio, Handanovic
Key Departures: Lucio, Pandev, Muntari, Diego Forlan (Internacional), Ivan Cordoba (retired)
BATTLE FOR EUROPE
4th
Roma - Roma will get a lot of press in the United States, now that Michael Bradley has transferred from Chievo Verona and is on a serious side. He will immediately start for them and the Wolves should make great strides to becoming one of Italy's best teams again. They finished 2 points outside Europa qualifying, and have their eyes set on Champions League qualifying this time around.
Their left side will be solidified after Bradley, Federico Balzaretti, and Leandro Castan have been brought in.
The ageless Francesco Totti has been at Roma since 1992, and will continue to start up top and produce. We'll see if Bojan sticks around.
2011: 7th, 16-8-14, 56 points
Key Additions: Bradley, Balzaretti, Castan, Mattia Destro (on loan from Genoa)
Key Departures: Fabio Borini (Liverpool)
5th
Lazio - They have strengthened themselves this season by not letting anyone major leave, and getting Antonio Candreva back from loan. Ederson comes over from Lyon and can be a playmaker up top. With Miroslav Klose up top as a solo striker, and another year of experience with the same core of players, Lazio should be primed for another good year, and may hang around in the top three discussion. Let's hope Europe doesn't slow them down.
Quarterfinal appearance in Europe.
2011: 4th,
Key Additions: Mauro Zarate (on loan from Inter), Ederson, Candreva
Key Departures: None
6th
Napoli - I'm very reluctant to say that they'll finish in 6th, cause in my heart I feel like they will have a bad season. I could see them finishing as low as 9th. Losing Ezequiel Lavezzi to P$G is a big disappoinment, however, the trio of Goran Pandev, Edinson Cavani and Marek Hamsik do have the capability of making Lavezzi's loss less painful.
Morgan De Sanctis will have to play well in goal, and Juan Camilo Zuniga has to control his temper if they are to play in Europe next season.
I predict a Round of 16 appearance in Europa.
2011: 5th (Qualified for Europa group stage via Coppa Italia), 16-13-9, 61 points
7th
Fiorentina - A slew of signings have the Viola looking up this year. Emiliano Viviano comes over from Palermo to replace the aging Boruc between the pipes. A quartet of difference makers (Borja Valero, Alberto Aquilani, Gonzalo Rodriguez, Matias Fernandez) enter Serie A looking to turn heads and help Fiorentina shock the league. They could knock off a lot of top teams when they're at their best.
2011: 13th, 11-13-14, 46 points
Key Arrivals: Valero, Aquilani, Rodriguez, Fernandez, Viviano
Key Departures: Valon Behrami, Boruc, Riccardo Montolivo
Morgan De Sanctis will have to play well in goal, and Juan Camilo Zuniga has to control his temper if they are to play in Europe next season.
I predict a Round of 16 appearance in Europa.
2011: 5th (Qualified for Europa group stage via Coppa Italia), 16-13-9, 61 points
7th
2011: 13th, 11-13-14, 46 points
Key Arrivals: Valero, Aquilani, Rodriguez, Fernandez, Viviano
Key Departures: Valon Behrami, Boruc, Riccardo Montolivo
8th
Udinese - After a season of defying all expectations, Udinese will go back to their old ways. There are some big shoes to fill after losing stud netminder Samir Handanovic to Inter. In comes Zeljko Brkic, the Siena keeper, expected to be between the sticks from day one.
Antonio Di Natale is truly the ageless wonder. At age 34, he's coming off a spectacular 55 point season (24 goals, 7 assists in all competitions) I believe he could have another 50-point effort this time around. Luis Muriel comes from Lecce and looks to be a great partner for Di Natale.
However, they have lost their centerpieces, as Isla and Asamoah departed to Juventus.
They have no easy task facing off against Braga in the CL playoffs. They should be an early exit from CL play, even if they get past the Portugeese side.
2011: 3rd (Qualified for CL playoffs), 18-10-10, 64 points
Key Additions: Brkic, Muriel, Willans (Flamengo), Davide Faraoni (Inter)
Key Departures: Isla, Asamoah, Handanovic
Genoa - A rather unpredictable team this year, as the club seems to create superstars, only to have to sell them off before their prime. This was the case again, and it looks to have another young group of talent to work with. Could see them fight for Europe or fight to stay up. This is my dark horse, as I think they could take care of lower teams, and steal points from anyone a class above them.
2011: 17th, 11-9-18, 42 points
Key Additions: Ciro Immobile (on loan from Pescara)
Key Departures: Miguel Veloso (Dinamo Kiev), Rodrigo Palacio (Inter)
10th
Catania - The set-piece wonder and captain Francesco Lodi is back and helped carry them to an impressively strong season. I don't see them faltering this year, and should stay consistent in form. Alberto Frison should be an improvement in goal.
2011: 11th, 11-15-12, 48 points
Key Additions: Frison (Vicenza)
Key Departures: None
11th
Parma - They lost their sole star in little Giovinco last year, and it'll be tough to replace him. They have brought in a few young players to help Parma stay relevant, and should be relatively comfortable staying in Serie A.
2011: 8th, 15-11-12. 56 points
Key Additions: Johnathon Biabiany (Sampdoria), Sotiris Ninis (Panathinaikos),
Key Departures: Giovinco
12th
Chievo - Losing Michael Bradley was a harsh blow, as he surprised many by being one of the best midfielders in all of Italy. Now he's at Roma, and there's still a gap that needs to be filled at CM.
2011: 10th, 12-13-13, 49 points
Key Additions: None
Key Departures: Bradley, Francesco Acerbi (AC Milan)
Atalanta - Without the points deduction they would have finished 9th last year. They have a solid team, and have spent this offseason. This position may drop, due to the match-fixing scandal.
2011: 12th, 13-13-12 (-6), 46 points
Key Additions: Luca Cigarini (Napoli), German Denis (Udinese)
Key Departures: Cristiano Doni (retired)
Antonio Di Natale is truly the ageless wonder. At age 34, he's coming off a spectacular 55 point season (24 goals, 7 assists in all competitions) I believe he could have another 50-point effort this time around. Luis Muriel comes from Lecce and looks to be a great partner for Di Natale.
However, they have lost their centerpieces, as Isla and Asamoah departed to Juventus.
They have no easy task facing off against Braga in the CL playoffs. They should be an early exit from CL play, even if they get past the Portugeese side.
2011: 3rd (Qualified for CL playoffs), 18-10-10, 64 points
Key Additions: Brkic, Muriel, Willans (Flamengo), Davide Faraoni (Inter)
Key Departures: Isla, Asamoah, Handanovic
MID-TABLE
9th2011: 17th, 11-9-18, 42 points
Key Additions: Ciro Immobile (on loan from Pescara)
Key Departures: Miguel Veloso (Dinamo Kiev), Rodrigo Palacio (Inter)
10th
2011: 11th, 11-15-12, 48 points
Key Additions: Frison (Vicenza)
Key Departures: None
11th
2011: 8th, 15-11-12. 56 points
Key Additions: Johnathon Biabiany (Sampdoria), Sotiris Ninis (Panathinaikos),
Key Departures: Giovinco
12th
2011: 10th, 12-13-13, 49 points
Key Additions: None
Key Departures: Bradley, Francesco Acerbi (AC Milan)
RELEGATION FIGHT
13th2011: 12th, 13-13-12 (-6), 46 points
Key Additions: Luca Cigarini (Napoli), German Denis (Udinese)
Key Departures: Cristiano Doni (retired)
14th
2011: 16th, 11-10-17, 43 points
Key Additions: Dybala
Key Departures: Emiliano Viviano (on loan), Matias Silvestre (on loan), Mattia Cassani (Fiorentina), Mauricio Pinilla (Cagliari), Federico Balzaretti (Roma)
15th
2011: 2nd (Serie B), 24-11-7, 83 points
Key Additions: Alessandro Gazzi (Siena), Gianluca Sassone (Sassoulo), Jean-Francois Gillet (Bologna)
Key Departures: Mirko Antenucci (Catania)
16th
Sampdoria - They're back, and new boss Ciro Ferrara has spent hoping to keep Samps up in the Serie A after a spectacular playoff run to promotion. They've brought in some valuable players on loan, and have held on to a nice core group of players, and will be in a relegation fight all season.
2011: 6th (Serie B, promoted via playoffs), 17-16-9, 67 points
Key Additions: Marcelo Estigarribia (CD Maldonado), Lorenzo di Silvestri (Fiorentina), Maxi Lopez (Catania), Eder (Cesena), Renan (CFR Cluj)
Key Departures: Daniele Dessena (Cagliari)
17th
Cagliari - They've lost a lot of what they had, however they've brought in some South Americans that could help them BARELY squeak by in the end.
2011: 15th, 10-13-15, 43 points
Key Additions: Thiago Ribiero (CA Rentistas), Mauricio Pinilla (Palermo), Daniele Dessena (Sampdoria)
Key Departures: Michele Canini (Genoa), Moestafa El-Khabir (Mjallby AIF)
Siena - The loss of Siena superstar Mattia Destro will hurt, as he was their first 12-goal scorer under-21 since 1971. If the owners don't spend to replace him, they will find themselves back in Serie B next year.
2011: 14th, 11-11-16, 44 points
Key Additions: Neto (CD Nacional Funchal)
Key Departures: Destro (Roma)
19th
Bologna - Italian legend Marco di Vaio left to go play in the MLS, and they haven't done much in the offseason to keep them afloat. This is my dark horse for relegation, but they have potential to finish as high as 12th.
2011: 9th, 13-12-13, 51 points
Key Additions: Marco Motta (Juventus), Gianluca Curci (Roma), Tibiero Guarente (Sevilla)
Key Departures: di Vaio (Montreal Impact), Gaby Mudingayi (Inter), Jean-Francois Gillet (Torino)
20th
Pescara - They've made money in their transfer season. As a newly promoted team, the ideal situation is to "spend money to make money" in order to survive. I just don't have confidence in this squad, and feel like they'll be back in Serie B next year. I have them in last, but I believe the bottom 5 will be close, within 6 points, so they could very well survive, but it'll be a fight. Losing their superstar Marco Verratti to PSG hurts, and maybe they'll make some more moves by the end of the summer or in January. They've loaned other stars as well.
2011: 1st (Serie B), 26-5-11, 83 points
Key Additions: Vladamir Weiss (Manchester City), Mattia Perin (loan, Genoa)
Key Departures: Verratti, Ciro Immobile (loan, Genoa), Lorenzo Insigne (loan, Napoli)
16th
2011: 6th (Serie B, promoted via playoffs), 17-16-9, 67 points
Key Additions: Marcelo Estigarribia (CD Maldonado), Lorenzo di Silvestri (Fiorentina), Maxi Lopez (Catania), Eder (Cesena), Renan (CFR Cluj)
Key Departures: Daniele Dessena (Cagliari)
17th
2011: 15th, 10-13-15, 43 points
Key Additions: Thiago Ribiero (CA Rentistas), Mauricio Pinilla (Palermo), Daniele Dessena (Sampdoria)
Key Departures: Michele Canini (Genoa), Moestafa El-Khabir (Mjallby AIF)
RELEGATION
18th2011: 14th, 11-11-16, 44 points
Key Additions: Neto (CD Nacional Funchal)
Key Departures: Destro (Roma)
19th
2011: 9th, 13-12-13, 51 points
Key Additions: Marco Motta (Juventus), Gianluca Curci (Roma), Tibiero Guarente (Sevilla)
Key Departures: di Vaio (Montreal Impact), Gaby Mudingayi (Inter), Jean-Francois Gillet (Torino)
20th
2011: 1st (Serie B), 26-5-11, 83 points
Key Additions: Vladamir Weiss (Manchester City), Mattia Perin (loan, Genoa)
Key Departures: Verratti, Ciro Immobile (loan, Genoa), Lorenzo Insigne (loan, Napoli)
Matchday 1 Predictions:
Saturday August 25th
Fiorentina 2:1 Udinese
Juventus 1:1 Parma
Sunday August 26th
AC Milan 3:0 Sampdoria
Roma 2:0 Catania
Atalanta 1:3 Lazio
Chievo 1:0 Bologna
Genoa 2:0 Cagliari
Palermo 0:0 Napoli
Siena 0:2 Torino
Pescara 1:3 Inter
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